Publikationsdatenbank

Analyzing the Risk of Short-Term Production Losses in Free-Range Hens Using Weather and Production System Data (2023)

Art

Poster

Autoren

Adejola, YA

Sibanda, TZ

Kearton, T

Boshoff, J

Ruhnke, Isabelle (WE 15)

Welch, M

Kongress

XIXth European Symposium on the Quality of Eggs and Egg Products, XXVth European Symposium on the Quality of Poultry Meat

Krakow, Poland, 07. – 09.09.2023

Quelle

Sprache

Englisch

Verweise

URL (Volltext): https://eggmeat2023.com/conf-data/eggmeat2022/files/Abstract%20Book.pdf

Kontakt

Nutztierklinik: Abteilung Geflügel

Königsweg 63
14163 Berlin
+49 30 838 62676
gefluegelkrankheiten@vetmed.fu-berlin.de

Abstract / Zusammenfassung

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the risk of short-term egg production losses, weather, and flock production performance data. A data set was collected from 7 flocks of 20,000 to 40,000 laying hens per flock. The data used for modelling included the age of hens, laying rate, mortality, feed and water intake, and historical weather data. This raw data was processed using a moving average to calculate a series of aggregate features including mean and standard deviation. Short-term reductions in egg production rate were detected through a peak-detection technique on inverted production curves. Generalised linear models were created to model the probability of a short-term drop in egg production 5 days after the end of the data window. The values across each variable were binned into low, high, and medium ranges, and odds ratios were calculated to identify significant relationships between the variables and production drop outcome. The results show that a lower standard deviation of the laying rate (<1.7%) was linked to a lower risk, while a higher standard deviation of the laying rate (> 3.4%) was linked with higher risk of sudden egg loss. This indicates that consistent laying performance is linked with a lower probability of a production issue. Lower mean feed and water intake are similarly linked with a higher risk of a sudden production drop. Higher mean mortality is linked with a lower risk, which is counterintuitive as high flock mortality would normally indicate a production issue. This suggests that mortality is likely a poor indicator of future risk. This study provides a good insight into the viability of using readily available production data within a decision support tool to aid in free-range egg production.