Publikationsdatenbank

Estimated incubation period distributions of mpox using cases from two international European festivals and outbreaks in a club in Berlin, May to June 2022 (2023)

Art

Zeitschriftenartikel / wissenschaftlicher Beitrag

Autoren

McFarland, Sarah E.

Marcus, Ulrich

Hemmers, Lukas

Miura, Fuminari

Iñigo Martínez, Jesús

Martínez, Fernando Martín

Montalbán, Elisa Gil

Chazelle, Emilie

Mailles, Alexandra

Silue, Yassoungo

Hammami, Naïma

Lecompte, Amaryl

Ledent, Nicolas

Vanden Berghe, Wim

Liesenborghs, Laurens

Van den Bossche, Dorien

Cleary, Paul R.

Wallinga, Jacco

Robinson, Eve P.

Johansen, Tone Bjordal

Bormane, Antra

Melillo, Tanya

Seidl, Cornelia

Coyer, Liza

Boberg, Ronja

Jurke, Annette

Werber, Dirk

Bartel, Alexander (WE 16)

Quelle

Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

Bandzählung: 28

Heftzählung: 27

Seiten: Artikel 2200806

ISSN: 1560-7917

Sprache

Englisch

Verweise

URL (Volltext): https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.27.2200806

DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.27.2200806

Pubmed: 37410383

Kontakt

Institut für Veterinär-Epidemiologie und Biometrie

Königsweg 67
14163 Berlin
+49 30 838 56034
epi@vetmed.fu-berlin.de

Abstract / Zusammenfassung

Background:
Since May 2022, an mpox outbreak affecting primarily men who have sex with men (MSM) has occurred in numerous non-endemic countries worldwide. As MSM frequently reported multiple sexual encounters in this outbreak, reliably determining the time of infection is difficult; consequently, estimation of the incubation period is challenging.

Aim:
We aimed to provide valid and precise estimates of the incubation period distribution of mpox by using cases associated with early outbreak settings where infection likely occurred.

Methods:
Colleagues in European countries were invited to provide information on exposure intervals and date of symptom onset for mpox cases who attended a fetish festival in Antwerp, Belgium, a gay pride festival in Gran Canaria, Spain or a particular club in Berlin, Germany, where early mpox outbreaks occurred. Cases of these outbreaks were pooled; doubly censored models using the log-normal, Weibull and Gamma distributions were fitted to estimate the incubation period distribution.

Results:
We included data on 122 laboratory-confirmed cases from 10 European countries. Depending on the distribution used, the median incubation period ranged between 8 and 9 days, with 5th and 95th percentiles ranging from 2 to 3 and from 20 to 23 days, respectively. The shortest interval that included 50% of incubation periods spanned 8 days (4-11 days).

Conclusion:
Current public health management of close contacts should consider that in approximately 5% of cases, the incubation period exceeds the commonly used monitoring period of 21 days.