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    Reflection on contextual factors associated with burden of infectious diseases in multi-country modelling approach on the example of Eastern Europe (2022)

    Art
    Zeitschriftenartikel / wissenschaftlicher Beitrag
    Autor
    Jarynowski, Andrzej (WE 16)
    Quelle
    E-methodology
    Bandzählung: 8.2021(2022)
    Heftzählung: 8
    Seiten: 99 – 105
    ISSN: 2392-0688
    Sprache
    Englisch
    Verweise
    URL (Volltext): https://e-methodology.eu/index.php/e-methodology/article/view/1452
    DOI: 10.15503/emet.2021.99.105
    Kontakt
    Institut für Veterinär-Epidemiologie und Biometrie

    Königsweg 67
    14163 Berlin
    +49 30 838 56034
    epi@vetmed.fu-berlin.de

    Abstract / Zusammenfassung

    Thesis:
    The use of mathematical models to nowcast and forecast allows to improve predictive understanding of epidemiological targets and indexes among various populations during infectious disease epidemics. Such models enable trend predictions of various scenarios of the pandemic and guiding epidemic prevention and control.

    Concept:
    In order to avoid the influence of low-quality studies (for a given region) on the interpretation and decision making, a critical analysis based on experience in field epidemiology should be carried out. For the sake of transparency and quality of scientific discourse, such observations should indeed be collected and discussed by the scientific and medical community. Selected global modelling studies have been assessed according to their epidemiological outcomes such as cases and deaths.

    Results and Conclusions:
    I show that the discrepancy between reported and predicted epidemiological features varies more significantly than the order of magnitude between the countries in selected models. My findings highlight that models’ results; readers should prefer locally developed models over multi-country models, even those being published in prestigious journals. Thus, agent based models should be prioritised against system dynamics or machine learning models. I suggest that future epidemiological models should adopt healthcare access as a factor of so-called dark figure of infections, especially in Eastern Europe.