Publication Database

Early warning analysis of african swine fever propagation in Eastern Europe (2018)

Art

Vortrag

Autoren

Jarynowski, Andrzej Krzysztof (WE 16)

Jarina, Jelena (WE 16)

Nowak, Claus (WE 16)

Belik, Vitaly (WE 16)

Kongress

25th International Pig Veterinary Society Congress

Chongqing, China, 11. – 14.06.2018

Quelle

25th International Pig Veterinary Society Congress : 2018 International PRRS Symposium : June 11-14, 2018, Chongqing, China : healty pig safe pork — Organizer: International Pig Veterinary Society (IPVS) (Hrsg.)

Chongqing, China: International Pig Veterinary Society (IPVS), 2018. Proceedings ; Volume 1 — S. 217

Sprache

Englisch

Verweise

URL (Volltext): http://www.theipvs.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/IPVS2018-proceedings-1.pdf

Kontakt

Institut für Veterinär-Epidemiologie und Biometrie

Königsweg 67
14163 Berlin
+49 30 838 56034
epi@vetmed.fu-berlin.de

Abstract / Zusammenfassung

Introduction:
African swine fever (ASF) is viral infection which causes acute disease in domestic pigs and wild boar. Although the virus does not cause disease in humans, the impact it has on the economy, especially through trade and farming, is substantial. Recent rapid propagation of the (ASF) from East to West of Europe encouraged us to prepare risk assessment for Poland and neighbouring countries. We perform early epidemic growth estimation and simulate landscape-based propagation. The values of chosen parameters have been estimated by regression functions, early detection growth estimation and spatial clustering.

Materials and Methods:
We analyzed 3230 observations (infection events) from February 2014 to November 2017 to their respective with time, longitude and latitude in Eastern Europe, where at least one house swine or wild boar case was reported. We take special attention to 25 Polish counties, which have been affected (until 31.01.2018). We provide several type of analysis: the early growth estimation, regression models, spatial clustering, propagation models. The early growth estimation can be easily done by matching incidence trajectory to the exponential function, resulting in the approximation of the force of infection. With these calculations the basic reproduction rate of the epidemic, the effective outbreaks detection and elimination times could be estimated. Early epidemic growth estimation indicates that to keep the epidemiological status quo will require a very fast response from veterinary services (less than one week after the detection to eliminate a single outbreak). We apply density-based spatial clustering to detect spatial clusters of infection events. We were able to distinguish Northern (Baltic States and Poland) and Southern (Ukraine and Balkan States) branches.

Results:
In regression models, 380 Polish counties (poviats) have been analyzed, with 25 affected (located in Northeast Poland) for spatial propagation (risk assessment for future). We claim, that pig heads strongly explain both probabilities of introducing ASF as well as outbreak size (which is in contradiction to Estonian study). On the other hand, the forest coverage explains a little the arrival time of ASF (the same as in the Estonian study). Propagation model has been applied by taking into account: swine amount, disease vectors (wild boards), effective pork production chain, human failure to restrictions. This model will be equipped with decision support systems as a tool for veterinarians. We show which regions could be crucial for ASF propagation and which paths are the most likely.

Conclusion:
ASF spreads from East to West of Europe with speed of around 200 km per year as a'wave'. Even if epidemiological situation in previously affected regions could stabilize in near future, the propagation will continue. However, we can predict most likely paths and attenuate the propagation.